POV: It's <16 Hours To The World Cup And You Still Don't Have A Team To Support
POV: It's <16 Hours To The World Cup And You Still Don't Have A Team To Support
A guide for friends who want to follow the World Cup with minimal to no prior reference point.
She’s here at last, albeit in no uncontroversial terms. Like a 4pm sunset in Daylight Savings, it feels wrong to go into the World Cup in a November. It feel even more wrong to have a World Cup in a Gulf regime-state that has perfected the art of sportswashing, backed by an all-too-willing, avaricious governing body. As the World Cup begins in earnest, it will do good to remember the rampant human rights abuses against migrant workers that prop up this tournament, leading to more than 6000 deaths since 2010, when Qatar were awarded the right to host the World Cup. It will also do good to note the arbitrary arrest, detention, and mistreatment of LGBTQ+ folks in Qatar. Sport has always done the bidding of those in power, too often and too easily at the expense of the most vulnerable in our society. For what it’s worth, several of the participating teams have brought these issues to the fore—notably, the Australian team put out a video announcing solidarity with migrant workers and with victims of oppression worldwide. My love for football is often compromised by the murky bedfellows it chooses, but I strongly believe in calling the World Cup out for what it is—a totalitarian vanity project—and for always, always choosing solidarity with workers, and solidarity with queer people. I recommend watching this documentary series by a football YouTube channel I love that unpacks the intersections of geopolitics, business, and sport that account for the Qatar World Cup—a good watch, even if you’re not into football.
Like I had promised in my last Substack, this newsletter will quickly devolve into football, football, and even more football for the next month. But I realize how alienating this may be for most of my friends, who nod along politely every time I start talking about Manchester United, or FIFA, or the tolls of an overcrowded fixture schedule on players. How will you begin to put up with my nonsense? As such, today I thought I’d flip around the premise of my Substack and ask you, the reader—why should you care about the World Cup? More specifically, who should you care about?
There are really only two kinds of hardcore football fans. The first group are the analytical, tactic-head data-nerds who money-ball everything. They throw around phrases like ‘expected goals,’ ‘hybrid press,’ ‘low block,’ and ‘half-space’—all well and fine if you’re into it, but extremely esoteric and bizarre if you’re not. They also make good team guides—like this one. I associate more with the second group—people who watch soccer for the narrative. What’s at stake? What’s the tea? Who’s pissed off at who? It is in this vein that I’ve assembled this alternative team-guide, in the hope that there will be a little bit of something for everyone, even if you have absolutely no desire to watch twenty-two men kick a ball around even once this next month.
Let’s kick it off, then:
IF YOU ARE A SUCKER FOR THE LAST HURRAH, OR IF YOU’RE INTO THE NARRATIVE SATISFACTION OF SPEAK NOW ERA TAYLOR SWIFT WHERE GIRL ALWAYS GETS BOY : ARGENTINA
This is the easy, uncontroversial pick. Argentina has Lionel Messi—arguably the best player in the world, if not of all time. He’s won everything at club level, but international success with Argentina has eluded him for the last fifteen years. OK, fine, fact-check me: he just won the South American cup last year. But it’s wild how Messi (the best player in the world) took 14 years to win a title for Argentina (a historically very good team). It is also a point that many Messi-haters latch onto—how can you be the GOAT if you haven’t won the World Cup? Maradona did it for Argentina in 1986. Pelé won it for Brazil in 1958 and in 1970.
2022 is the best—and last—time for Leo to beat the fraud allegations. For one, he’s 35 years old, and about to head to his fifth and final World Cup. Also, for once in his career Messi has an all-rounded supporting cast with no glaring weaknesses, who are on a 37-game unbeaten run. And Argentina haven’t won the World Cup since…Maradona and ‘86. Like the silver shoe that fits perfectly, the ending writes itself. If you choose Argentina as your team, you’re going to get really good football, and likely a deep run into the tournament. Watch for the iconic #10, who makes dribbling and passing the ball at impossible angles look effortless. (Watch out also for Manchester United star signing and short king Lisandro Martínez…if he starts.)
If you’re into narrative satisfaction but not Argentina, then you could also choose PORTUGAL, who have their own waning generational star seeking his last hurrah…although even mentioning the words “Cristiano Ronaldo” these days causes me to break out in hives. URUGUAY’s Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani are no greatest-of-the-greatest players, but they're pretty damn good even at 35, and will be extremely bloodthirsty in front of goal. And BELGIUM’s aging “Golden Generation”—once touted to win it all—has one last chance to write itself into the history books.
IF YOU LOVE SCHADENFREUDE, CURSES, WITCHCRAFT, CATASTROPHE, AND WATCHING LONG-HELD REPUTATIONS BURN UP AROUND YOU LIKE A DUMPSTER FIRE: FRANCE
The World Cup is in the midst of a bizarre curse—4 of its past 5 winners have failed to progress beyond the preliminary group stage in the following tournament. France (winners in 1998) scored 0 goals and crashed out to Senegal in 2002. Italy (2006) finished last in a group with Slovakia, New Zealand, and Paraguay in 2010. Spain limped out four years later on the back of a 5-1 drubbing by the Netherlands. And Germany (2014) flunked out after that infamous defeat to South Korea in 2018.
Who won in 2018? The French. Granted, they have a superb team, but things are slowly starting to unravel. Their starting midfield duo of Pogba and Kanté are both out of the tournament, and in the last week alone they have lost two other starters—Christopher Nkunku and Presnel Kimpembe—to injury. Add to this the chaos surrounding French football in general (there are way too many notable highlights, but they include: star man Kylian Mbappé being the subject of a bot attack on social media…by his own team; Pogba being blackmailed by his own brother, who went on IG live to accuse him of witchcraft; and a squad mutiny at the 2010 World Cup) and you have the febrile makings of an implosion waiting to happen. (Seriously, DM me for more French football sagas). If the worst does happen, expect a surprise loss to Tunisia, player’s parents fighting each other in the stands, and many close-ups of sweaty, sobbing, disbelieving French players who thought they were talented enough to rise above the winner’s curse. Either you’re praying for downfall, or you eagerly want to prove me wrong (another kind of downfall tbh).
If that somehow didn’t sell it to you, then may I suggest ENGLAND—a team that historically folds apart under intense national media scrutiny and expectation. They evaded this problem the last time by pretending to be so bad that they raised no one’s expectations, only to reach the semi-finals. But that’s the sort of trick you can pull off once. Expect them to slog against Iran on Monday, causing a toxic meltdown in the British media. Speaking of tradition, MEXICO always navigate the group stage before losing the very first knockout game in the last seven tournaments (losing to Bulgaria, Germany, USA, Argentina, Argentina again, Netherlands, and Brazil in the process). I think they’ll break this curse this time around…by not even making it out of the group stage. Sorry, but this is the schadenfreude section. They’ll be rocked by Poland in the first game, lose all confidence, and then get smacked by Argentina. Messi with a goal and an assist, of course.
IF YOU LOVE A GOOD UNDERDOG STORY EVEN IF THEY DON’T WIN IT ALL; OR IF YOU RUN A SUBSTACK CALLED THOUGHTS BY V: CANADA
When you think of sports and Canada, you think of ice hockey, or the Winter Olympics, or how Drake has an official executive position in the Toronto Raptors. I feel like Canada is often viewed as having a sporting inferiority complex to the US. All its best basketball, baseball, and soccer teams play in the American league, and a Canadian team hasn’t won the Stanley Cup for ice hockey since 1993. Not too long before that in 1986, Canada qualified for their only World Cup ever…and lost three games and scored zero goals in the process.
2022, however, feels different. Canada breezed through North American qualifying by beating both the US and Mexico at home (including this absurdly wonderful game played in subzero weather). I don’t think Canada are here to just play the handmaiden and have a good time either. In Alphonso Davies, they have the best player in North America (if fit), and Jonathan David and Stephen Eustáquio are both excelling in competitive European leagues. They are also in an pretty evenly matched group—Croatia and Belgium are the favorites to go through but are both aging teams in transition. If you choose Canada as your team, expect a lot of enterprising football, at least one shock result, and a lot of commentators saying “Let’s not take anything away from this Canada team” before spending 20 minutes diagnosing what was wrong with their opponents, instead of what was right with Canada.
If 36 years between 1986 and 2022 is a long wait for a World Cup appearance, imagine being a Welsh fan and not being in a World Cup since 1958. Led by the evergreen Gareth Bale (who famously loves golf more than soccer, and who currently plays in Los Angeles), I expect WALES (or CYMRU, as they will be known after the World Cup) to trip up the likes of England and United States in the group. And Canada’s group opponents MOROCCO are also another underrated underdog team that will cause many problems, particularly with their flying wingbacks, Achraf Hakimi (PSG) and Noussair Mazraoui (Bayern Munich). A fun fact about the Moroccan team is that their old manager was called Vahid Halilhodžić..who was then replaced by Walid Regragui. Talk about namesakes!
IF YOU THINK THE PHRASE “FOLLY OF YOUTH” IS DUMB, HARMFUL, AND REDUCTIVE, AND THAT YOU CAN ACTUALLY WIN IT ALL (OK MAYBE ONE OR TWO GAMES) IN THE WORLD CUP WITH KIDS: ECUADOR
Of late, the first game of the World Cup has always been a strange matchup shorn of superstar gloss. In 2010, South Africa played Mexico, and in 2018, Russia played Saudi Arabia (the two worst-ranked teams in the tournament at the time). This time around seems no different, with controversial hosts and World Cup debutants Qatar facing Ecuador, who don’t have an illustrious World Cup history themselves. And true, Ecuador isn’t a super-exciting team to watch (having not scored more than one goal in a game snice November 2021), but they have a strong, young core of players with tremendous potential. Ecuador’s squad has an average age of 25.6 years, and Moisés Caicedo (21 years old), Pervis Estupiñán (24), Piero Hincapié (20), and Gonzalo Plata (22) will all make a great account of themselves against teams like Qatar and Senegal (without Sadio Mané) that I think they can realistically beat. If you choose Ecuador as your team, be prepared to tell people around you that the Ecuador team has “a bright upshot” and “defend well and counter well”…because they’re going to sit back for 60 minutes and your friends will be bored of Ecuador, but you have to stick with them, I promise you.
There are only two teams younger than Ecuador in this tournament. One is the United States, although I feel like American media outlets are hyping them up waaaaaay too much and expect the team to go deep in the tournament. (They won’t…but more below). The youngest team is technically GHANA (average age 24.7 years old). Ghana qualified for the World Cup under very suspect terms, after being awarded a penalty that wasn’t a penalty against South Africa, before stonewalling their way to a win over a very fancied Nigeria team. (Maybe the shithousery is a good reason to like them!) Nevertheless, they have a bunch of exciting young players, some of whom were naturalized from England and Belgium (Take that, colonialism!) Watch out for winger Kamaldeen Sulemana (20) as well as Tariq Lamptey (22)—once touted as the future England right-back, who switched to play for Ghana earlier this year. We love a revenge narrative. Speaking of which…
IF YOU’RE ON YOUR VIGILANTE SH*T THIS MONTH (OR IF YOU’RE MY DAD): NETHERLANDS
Imagine reaching the final in 2010, the semis in 2014…and then forgetting to qualify in 2018. Adding to the failure to qualify for the 2016 European Championships, and it’s clear that the Netherlands national team has been a laughing stock, and a hotbed for chaos and drama in the last decade. I think the more painful thing is that the Netherlands is the birthplace of Total Football—the fluid, all-out tactical style of play that many of the best teams at this World Cup will have some variation of—and yet the Netherlands have never won the World Cup. Never. What better way to shut the haters up than to win the whole thing? I really think they can do it. They have probably the easiest group, and will at least make the quarter finals. They have the world’s best defender in Virgil Van Dijk (what a name, by the way), one of the world’s best midfielders in Frenkie de Jong (pls come to Man United uwu), and forward Cody Gakpo is in incredible goalscoring form (also please come to Man United). If you choose the Netherlands, expect swagger, goals, young players making crucial breakthroughs…and eccentric manager Louis van Gaal. This guy is insane. He has overcome prostate cancer to be here. He was also briefly manager at Man United, and while the football on the pitch was dead, his press moments were legendary. He once asked his players to be “hungry and horny” for the ball. And look at this clip of him accusing a referee of not seeing an opposition player flop to the ground:
Another team with something to prove is good ol’ Murica. As mentioned above, there are pundits who are backing the UNITED STATES to go far in this tournament…but did they not remember how the team failed to qualify in 2018? Also, they’ve been dreadful leading up to this tournament. No wins in three, no shots on target against Japan and Saudi Arabia, and a young and inexperienced (albeit very, very talented) squad. But with the likes of Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, Timothy Weah, Brendon Aaronson, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams (all aged 24 and below, all playing first-team football in big European leagues), the USMNT have enough to prove the haters (me) wrong. The true revenge deathmatch will take place over Thanksgiving weekend, when the USA play England.
POV YOU CALL IT “FILM” AND NOT “MOVIE”: DENMARK
Like an A24 movie in awards season, this section is for teams who may not win it all, but are formidable, easy on the eye, and who could go very, very far. Above all else, this section is for teams that provide a virtue-signal that you don’t just watch football—you know football. This year’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is Denmark. Semi-finalists at last year’s European Championships, defensively solid and fun to watch in attack, with Christian Eriksen—who almost died last year at the Euros—in full health and stringing the play from midfield. They’re in the same group as France, and given that they’ve already beaten the French twice this year alone, I don’t see why they can’t do it a third time. Sometimes it’s sad to think about ‘smaller’ nations who can’t regularly compete at the World Cups, and need several moving parts to come into place to put together a deep run in a World Cup. (See: Croatia 2018, Ghana 2010, Turkey and South Korea 2002). So it’s best to enjoy this superlative Denmark team while you can.
If you choose Denmark, you will gain the satisfaction of: 1) relative moral superiority because the Danish team is one of the most vocal protestors of the Qatar World Cup, including a fashion protest by Hummel, the Danish kit manufacturer; and 2) being able to tell your other friends that you knew all along that Denmark was going to make a deep run.
IF YOU ARE FASHIONABLY WITH THE TIMES AND WANT TO GET INTO BLOKECORE: JAPAN
Yes, fight me. Football jerseys are in again. I’m wearing the beautiful 21/22 Ajax away kit as I write this, and I appreciate the value of a thoughtfully designed, aesthetically pleasing shirt. Talk about the beautiful game. There haven’t been any standout kits this year the way that Nigeria stole the hearts of every football influencer on the planet in 2018. However, you can always rely on Japan to come up with a great kit. This is their seventh consecutive World Cup, and the Blue Samurai have always had a sleek blue outfit with white and red detailing. This year’s version may be their nicest yet, with a geometrical design that looks like an origami bird. Watch out for Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma, and Daichi Kamada taking flight against Germany and Spain—who knows, perhaps they can break out of the “group of death.”
CROATIA has perhaps one of the most iconic kits in all of world football (barring Brazil and Argentina), and this year’s uneven checkers adds some originality to their checkerboard design. I don’t know if it’s for everyone, but it definitely is for me. Easily the best kit of the tournament is the MEXICO away shirt—a beige outfit with red detailing inspired by Aztec and Mixtec gods. (They really need divine intervention this year!) But given that it’s an away kit, it’s unlikely it’ll get much of a run-out, sadly.
IF YOU WORK AT MCKINSEY, AND DO A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR EVERY SMALL LIFE DECISION: GERMANY/SPAIN/BRAZIL
OK, you just want to back a winner. These are three of the strongest teams in the tournament, fair enough. But where’s the fun in these choices? Brazil and Germany have qualified for every World Cup they’ve not been banned from. Spain aren’t as mind-numbingly, boringly good as they were 12 years ago, but they’re always going to be good enough. Granted, Germany and Spain are in the same group and will play out one of the most highly anticipated games of the group stages, but I don’t see either team crashing out in the group stage, really. In fact, I’ll say that all three teams will make the quarter-finals, at the very least. Brazil are one of the all-out favorites, and are always fun to watch, so I’d suggest you put your pin on them ahead of the other two teams. Bear in mind, however, that the best games of recent World Cups have involved these teams being humiliated (Spain losing 5-1 in 2014, Germany losing to South Korea, and Brazil losing 7-1 in their home tournament in 2014…to Germany), so there may be one statistically anomalous moment of profound heartbreak for you.
Stay tuned here for more World Cup coverage—sorry not sorry for this development, by the way.